China's Singles' Day is not a reason to buy Alibaba, if history is any guide

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Chinese citizens will spend $30 billion or even more on Singles' Day, but that's never been a reason to buy Alibaba shares. The Chinese internet commerce giant tends to fall in the week ahead of the big holiday.

China's Singles' Day, which will occur next Monday, Nov. 11, is the world's biggest online shopping event.But Alibaba has traded down in the week leading into the holiday over the past five years.

Some analysts, however, believe sales growth expectations this year could be tempered. Alibaba counts roughly 130 million customers outside of China, and the trade war between the U.S. and China could hamper some of those international sales. Additionally, this will be the first Singles' Day after the retirement of Jack Ma, Alibaba's founder.

"The charts have definitely seen some notable recent strength, but I don't know if they're just out of the woods yet," said JC O'Hara, chief market technician at MKM Partners, on CNBC's "O'Hara is watching Alibaba closely. "Until we see Alibaba break above $185 — that will, in essence, create a new high — I'm a little cautious here."Alibaba shares were at $182 in early trading on Wednesday.

 

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