Volcanologists and geochemists getting ready to sample lava during the July 2023 Fagradalsfjall eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula of Iceland. Credit: Valentin TrollIceland faces a prolonged volcanic threat on the Reykjanes Peninsula, impacting key infrastructure and 70% of the population. Ongoing scientific analysis aims to predict future eruptions and their consequences using seismic and geochemical data.
Under an hour’s drive from the island’s capital city Reykjavík, the eruptions pose considerable risks for economic disruption, and they leave evacuated communities uncertain of a possible return.An international team of scientists has been watching the volcanoes over the past three years. Analyzing seismic tomography imaging and the composition of lava samples, they’ve uncovered parts of the geological processes behind the new volcanic era.
“In the air we breathe, there’s a mixture of these oxygen isotopes and we don’t feel the difference,” he said. “Their differences are usually not important for chemical reactions but are important to recognize as their relative abundances in magma can differentiate one magma source from another.” Although this marks the beginning of potentially persistent volcanic episodes in Iceland, the researchers can’t precisely predict yet how long the episodes and the gaps between each will last.“Nature is never regular,” Bindeman said. “We don’t know how long and how frequently it will continue for the next ten or even hundred years. A pattern will emerge, but nature always has exceptions and irregularities.