1. Brazil Fails to Bring the Oil Bonanza into 2024 - Brazil has been one of the fastest-growing oil producers of the 2020s, reaching a crude production all-time high of 3.73 million b/d in early 2024, but production woes have hampered its performance since. - Oil production has plunged almost 25% since the beginning of this year, mostly caused by unnamed technical problems encountered at the Mero and Tupi pre-salt fields.
- Considering Europe’s storage levels are set to be 76% full by the end of June, the East-West arbitrage might become even wider, especially given that further heatwaves are expected in Northeast Asia over the course of July-August. - At the same time, the US hurricane season could lead to protracted shut-ins for US Gulf Coast infrastructure, providing a notable upside for prices in the summer, potentially even happening concurrently with Norwegian gas field maintenance in August-September. 5.
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