European automakers and politicians nervously await news of Beijing’s possible retaliation to the European Union’s decision to impose increased tariffs on China-made electric vehicle imports.
“We don’t expect list prices to be impacted significantly with the likes of BYD and MG forced to soak up the tariffs into their inflated European profit margins,” said Matt Schmidt of Schmidt Automotive Research in a LinedIn message.Schmidt said after factoring in the tariff rise, his forecast for Chinese manufacturers’ share of the Western Europe EV market will peak at just under 12% in 2030, compared with just below 10% currently.
But the idea that all will be well might be complacent. After all, China’s initial reaction was hardly sanguine. Investment bank UBS said if the tariff decision is finalized the European EV market might be left to the bigger Chinese operators. Global markets tend to be higher-margin than domestic, so there is scope to offset the tariffs. Leading Chinese manufacturers will accelerate local assembly.