New data on ‘the Big One’ offers a clearer view of inevitable earthquake catastrophe

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Lauren Leffer is a science, tech, and environmental reporter based in Brooklyn, NY. She writes on many subjects including artificial intelligence, climate, and weird biology because she's curious to a fault. When she's not writing, she's hopefully hiking.

ArticleBody:On January 26, 1700, a tsunami struck Japan. We know this from written records describing the coastal inundation. Yet what’s most notable about these records is what they don’t describe. Tsunamis are the result of water displaced by earthquakes, but the 1700 tsunami didn’t correlate to any quake felt in Japan–there was no warning tremor.

Geological Survey For 41 days in 2021, members of the study team were at sea aboard a sophisticated research vessel, with an array of thousands of underwater recording devices trailing for miles behind the ship. They shot powerful sound pulses towards and through the seafloor, collecting the echoes with their bevvy of sensitive hydrophones.

Modified from Carbotte et al., Science Advances, 2024 Another key finding: The segment of the Juan de Fuca plate off the coast of Washington is very smooth and flat, says Wirth. “Counterintuitively, a fault that is smoother at the boundary between two plates has the potential for larger earthquakes than a fault that is rougher,” he adds. Smooth means more contact between the plates, more friction over a larger area, and fewer geologic features impeding the spread of a slip event.

 

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