Former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner is confident that an AI lab will be able to train a GPT-4-level model in a minute in 2027, versus three months in 2023.
Dubbed “Situational Awareness,” the series offers a glance at the state of AI systems and their promising potential in the next decade. The full series of essays isIn the essays, the researcher paid specific attention to AGI, a type of AI that matches or surpasses human capabilities across a wide range of cognitive tasks. AGI is one of many different types of artificial intelligence, including artificial narrow intelligence, or ANI, and artificial superintelligence, or ASI.
According to Aschenbrenner, AI systems could potentially possess intellectual capabilities comparable to those of a professional computer scientist. He also made another bald prediction that AI labs would be able to train general-purpose language models within minutes, stating:
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