The 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study forecasts a rise in global life expectancy by 2024-2050, driven by effective public health strategies and a shift in disease burden from communicable to non-communicable diseases, with a focus on reducing disparities and addressing metabolic and lifestyle-related risks., predict a rise in global life expectancy of 4.9 years for males and 4.2 years for females from 2022 to 2050.
“In addition to an increase in life expectancy overall, we have found that the disparity in life expectancy across geographies will lessen,” said Dr. Chris Murray, Chair of Health Metrics Sciences at theand Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation . “This is an indicator that while health inequalities between the highest- and lowest-income regions will remain, the gaps are shrinking, with the biggest increases anticipated in sub-Saharan Africa.
“We forecast large differences in global DALY burden between different alternative scenarios to see what is the most impactful on our overall life expectancy data and DALY forecasts,” said Dr. Stein Emil Vollset, first author of the study who leads the GBD Collaborating Unit at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. “Globally, the forecasted effects are strongest for the ‘Improved Behavioral and Metabolic Risks’ scenario, with a 13.
“There is immense opportunity ahead for us to influence the future of global health by getting ahead of these rising metabolic and dietary risk factors, particularly those related to behavioral and lifestyle factors like high blood sugar, high body mass index, and high blood pressure,” continued Dr. Murray.