From boom to burst, the AI bubble is only heading in one direction

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No one should be surprised that artificial intelligence is following a well-worn and entirely predictable financial arc

Market forces: bankrupt investor Walter Thornton tries to sell his luxury roadster for $100 on the streets of New York after the 1929 Wall Street crash.Market forces: bankrupt investor Walter Thornton tries to sell his luxury roadster for $100 on the streets of New York after the 1929 Wall Street crash., which is written by humans who know about this stuff. It told me that a bubble goes through five stages – rather as.

Second stage: boom. The launch of ChatGPT revealed that all the big tech companies had actually been playing with this AI stuff for years but had been too scared to tell the world because of the technology’s intrinsic flakiness. Once OpenAI, ChatGPT’s maker, had let the cat out of the bag, though, fomo ruled.

Which brings us to stage four of the cycle: profit-taking. This is where canny operators spot that the process is becoming unhinged and start to get out before the bubble bursts. Since nobody is making real money yet from AI except those that build the hardware, there are precious few profits to take, save perhaps for those who own shares in Nvidia or Apple, Amazon, Meta,and Alphabet . This generative AI turns out to be great at spending money, but not at producing returns on investment.

 

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