The central puzzle about this election campaign, that has pollsters and pundits opining, is the disconnect between the state of the economy and President Joe Biden’s approval ratings. A simple rule of thumb is that a president’s approval rating predicts the chances of reelection. It used to be that the public’s view of the president depended mostly on its view of the economy. But that relationship has gone haywire recently. Look at the current state of the economy.
Many people believe that populism is fundamentally about rising inequality and a working class that has been left behind. But look at northern European countries like Sweden and Denmark. They spend lavishly on social safety nets and worker retraining programs and have relatively low inequality. And yet, populist parties — at least one with a direct lineage to fascism — have surged in these places to become major political players.