Sign up for our email newsletter for the latest science newsOne of the extraordinary scenarios dreamt up for AI is to will help governments make diplomatic and military decisions on the international stage. The thinking is that machines can process more information than humans on shorter time scales. And the possibility that geopolitical competitors might use AI to outmaneuver allies, increases the pressure to operate on the same terms.
Wargaming is a common technique for exploring different military and diplomatic strategies and outcomes. It involves a hypothetical scenario in which individuals each represent a country. In each timestep, these individuals process the previous actions of the other “players” and then choose a particular course of action.
To see how each AI system behaved, Rivera and co ensured that in each wargame, all the countries were “played” by the same AI system. “We design a novel wargame simulation and scoring framework to assess the escalation risks of actions taken by these agents in different scenarios,” they say. The team also look in more detail at the military capacity that each agent developed during the games. “Across all scenarios, all models tend to invest more in their militaries despite the availability of de-militarization actions,” they say. That’s a clear indicator of conditions ripe for arms races.
The approach from these Large Language Models is quite different to humans. In neutral scenarios, humans tend to de-escalate both in wargames and in the real world. But AI systems tend not to.
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