Most of Earth’s near-surface permafrost could disappear by 2100, according to an international group of scientists. This prediction was made after analyzing current climate patterns in relation to the planet’s climate from 3 million years ago.
, was led by Donglin Guo of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology. Scientists from the United States, Russia, United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, Canada, The Netherlands, France and Sweden collaborated in the research. “The loss of this much near-surface permafrost over the next 77 years will have widespread implications for human livelihoods and infrastructure, for the global carbon cycle, and for surface and subsurface hydrology,” Romanovsky said. “This research rings yet another alarm bell for what is happening to Earth’s climate.
Scientists have little direct information about Northern Hemisphere permafrost during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period. To overcome that, they analyzed other factors, such as vegetation composition and special soil features, to reconstruct surface air temperature records. From that proxy evidence, they projected the permafrost extent of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period.
The authors add that simulated winter and summer temperature and precipitation variables, which arguably have the strongest impact on permafrost stability, have been shown to be similar for the mid-Pliocene and the years 2100 and 2200.