In nationwide projections, elderly and black adults are most at risk for cardiovascular death due to extreme heat, finds a new study in the journal,Cardiovascular deaths from extreme heat in the United States are projected to increase by 162% by the middle of the century, based on a hypothetical scenario where currently proposed U.S. policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have been successfully implemented.
Cardiovascular deaths from extreme heat in the U.S. may more than double by the middle of the century. Without reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, that number could even triple, according to new NIH-funded research published on October 30 in the American Heart Association’s flagship journal“Climate change and its many manifestations will play an increasingly important role on the health of communities around the world in the coming decades, “ said lead study author Sameed Khatana, M.D., M.P.
Even if currently proposed reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are fully implemented, excess cardiovascular deaths due to extreme heat are projected to be 162% higher in the middle of this century compared to the 2008-2019 baseline. Non-Hispanic black adults are projected to have a 3.8 to 4.6 times greater increase in cardiovascular death due to extreme heat compared with non-Hispanic white adults, depending on the degree to which greenhouse policies are implemented.
“Previous studies have suggested black residents may have less access to air conditioning; less tree cover; and a higher degree of the ‘urban heat island effect’ — built-up areas having a greater increase in temperature than surrounding less-developed areas,” Khatana said. “Living conditions may also have a role in terms of social isolation, which is experienced by some older adults and has previously been linked with a higher probability of death from extreme heat.
The projections raise the question of whether infrastructure interventions, such as increasing tree cover in neighborhoods, may lead to improvements in the number of people affected by extreme heat in the U.S. Some research results from Europe suggest that this may be the case, however, studies in the U.S. are lacking.) causes more than 6 million deaths per year.
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