A majority of countries use numerical weather prediction models, which use mathematical equations to create computer simulations of the atmosphere and oceans. When you look at AccuWeather or the weather app on your phone, data from numerical weather predictions is used to predict future weather., a climatologist at Colorado State University who was not involved in both studies, hails these forecasting tools as a major scientific success story, decades in the making.
But Xie notes that “AI offers advantages in numerical weather prediction being orders of magnitudes faster than conventional, simulation-based models.” The numerical models often do not have the capacity to predict extreme weather hazards such as tornadoes or hail. What’s more, unlike AI systems, it takes a lot of computational power and hours to produce a single simulation.
Pangu-Weather can predict weather patterns five to seven days in advance. However, the AI model cannot forecast precipitation—which it would need to do to predict tornadoes and other extreme events. The secondNowcastNet, unlike Pangu-Weather, focuses on detailed, realistic descriptions of extreme rainfall patterns in local regions. NowcastNet uses radar observations from the US and China, as well as deep learning methods, to predict precipitation rates over a 1.