Will AI soon be as smart as — or smarter than — humans?

“Superintelligent AIs are in our future. ... Once developers can generalize a learning algorithm and run it at the speed of a computer — an accomplishment that could be a decade away or a century away — we’ll have an incredibly powerful AGI. It will be able to do everything that a human brain can, but without any practical limits on the size of its memory or the speed at which it operates. ...

“I’m often told that AGI and superintelligence won’t happen because it’s impossible: human-level Intelligence is something mysterious that can only exist in brains. Such carbon chauvinism ignores a core insight from the AI revolution: that intelligence is all about information processing, and it doesn’t matter whether the information is processed by carbon atoms in brains or by silicon atoms in computers.

“Once AI can improve itself, which may be not more than a few years away, and could in fact already be here now, we have no way of knowing what the AI will do or how we can control it.

“Computer hardware and software are the latest cognitive technologies, and they are powerful aids to innovation, but they can’t generate a technological explosion by themselves. You need people to do that, and the more the better. Giving better hardware and software to one smart individual is helpful, but the real benefits come when everyone has them. Our current technological explosion is a result of billions of people using those cognitive tools. Could A.I.

“These days my viewpoint is that this is AGI, in that it is a kind of intelligence and it is general — but we have to be a little bit less, you know, hysterical about what AGI means. ... We’re getting this tremendous amount of raw intelligence without it necessarily coming with an ego-viewpoint, goals, or a sense of coherent self. That, to me, is just fascinating.

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