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The qualifier “expected” is important because it indicates that decisions are made under conditions of significant uncertainty. If I toss a fair coin, I know that it will come up heads half of the time on average. However, I can’t make a prediction about the outcome of any given coin toss. This is why casinos are able to afford the occasional big payout: Even narrow house odds yield enormous profits on average.
that we conducted using ChatGPT confirm that decision-making remains a nontrivial and unsolved problem even for much bigger and more advanced large language models.This line of study is important because rational decision-making under conditions of uncertainty is critical to building systems that understand costs and benefits.
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