AI Algorithm Predicts Future Crimes One Week in Advance With 90% Accuracy

A new algorithm forecasts crime by learning patterns in time and geographic locations from public data on violent and property crimes. It can predict future crimes one week in advance with about 90% accuracy.

“What we’re seeing is that when you stress the system, it requires more resources to arrest more people in response to crime in a wealthy area and draws police resources away from lower socioeconomic status areas,” said Ishanu Chattopadhyay, PhD, Assistant Professor of Medicine at UChicago and senior author of the new study, which was published on June 30, 2022, in the journalThe new tool was tested and validated using historical data from the City of Chicago around two broad categories of...

The new model isolates crime by looking at the time and spatial coordinates of discrete events and detecting patterns to predict future events. It divides the city into spatial tiles roughly 1,000 feet across and predicts crime within these areas instead of relying on traditional neighborhood or political boundaries, which are also subject to bias. The model performed just as well with data from seven other U.S.

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